Classic Values (at the moment 12/23).

[chrisvega]

Haha....... no worries Rob, I wasn't insulted, sure I've been called worse things

The reason for the S30Z prices going so high is partially on the coat tails of the Porsche silly price explosion over the last couple of years.
If you can't have a 911 what's the next best thing (for some people, others more discerning already know that an S30 is the better car)
Porsche prices are falling, S30Zs will follow too but I think it will be a mild correction, nothing too drastic - well hopefully not.

As Jason said, with cheap money no longer available people won't be borrowing to buy classic cars the same way they were previously and throw in the mortgage rate hikes, cost of living crisis and it all points to a fall in values. People with cash in the bank previously thought with interest on their money at 0.5% (if they were lucky) that they may as well buy a classic car instead and have a bit of fun whilst retaining value and if lucky and choosing the right model (Ford, Porsche, Z etc) even making a bit of money too. With banks now paying 5% interest it makes that decision harder and plenty of people especially the less committed classic car fans will take the easier option.

 

[jonbills]

I've heard that there are people that trade in modern cars too

 

[chrisvega]

Depends how long you keep them probably Rob,I paid £ 2600 for my Zed,wots it worth now I wonder

I'll give you £2750 and a packet of cheesy wotsits us traders drive a hard bargain!

 

[DaveF]

Well I bought mine because, first and foremost, I wanted it. I probably paid too much for it, then spent more on the bodywork and will probably spend more next year on the interior.

My feeling is that it may (one-day) repay me, but if it doesn't then I'll content myself with being able to drive around enjoying it. Having a car that you want to look at (a lot) is why I bought a classic.

Talking of weirdly profitable vehicles though, my best was a VW Transporter...bought in 2010 for 11K and sold in 2017 for 15K!! The only vehicle I've ever made a profit on!!

 

[Robotsan]

Well I bought mine because, first and foremost, I wanted it. I probably paid too much for it, then spent more on the bodywork and will probably spend more next year on the interior.

My feeling is that it may (one-day) repay me, but if it doesn't then I'll content myself with being able to drive around enjoying it. Having a car that you want to look at (a lot) is why I bought a classic.

Talking of weirdly profitable vehicles though, my best was a VW Transporter...bought in 2010 for 11K and sold in 2017 for 15K!! The only vehicle I've ever made a profit on!!

I reckon you would've doubled your money on the Transporter by 2021.. campervan prices went insane over lockdowns (more than other vehicles!).

I think I've made a profit on 95% of the cars I've owned. Most of them very cheap but mildly to very interesting collectables which were in great nic and only got better in my ownership.. MK2 Scirocco, Honda Prelude MK4, E30 Baur convertible, Honda Civic Mk6, E30 320 Coupe, E36 318iS Coupe, E46 320ci, R53 Mini Cooper S, E46 M3 .. made decent money on all of them, especially the M3 (£13k profit from 2020 to 2023!). Bought an 2016 M135i for £18k this year which I expect to be the only car I'll lose a significant amount of money on.

Bought the 280z for £11k in 2022.. but by the time I've got it painted along with all the other parts I've bought, I'll easily have spent another £15k on it. Can't see it being worth £26k being a left hooker, but maybe it will in time and perhaps I could make my money back if sold in 10 years - but I will have likely spent another £15k on it by then So its very much a hobby that I like to spend my disposable income on, rather than an investment or anything.

 

[Mr Tenno]

So far my classics have only cost me money

 

[chrisvega]

100% with you on campervan/motorhome prices Robotsan.
That's a vehicle sector I agree is overpriced.

in 2020 I bought a brand new Swift Ducato based campervan/motorhome for £40k and now just three years later the same van is £65k new!
At least it's a proper motorhome though with a shower and toilet.
You want a new VW T6/7 California it's £65k for basic van and £80k plus for one with any spec. and it's a roof tent for one of the beds, outside shower and porta potti if you're lucky in one of those. No wonder the prices of used T5/6s went up so much.

 

[DaveF]

I reckon you would've doubled your money on the Transporter by 2021.. campervan prices went insane over lockdowns (more than other vehicles!).

I think I've made a profit on 95% of the cars I've owned. Most of them very cheap but mildly to very interesting collectables which were in great nic and only got better in my ownership.. MK2 Scirocco, Honda Prelude MK4, E30 Baur convertible, Honda Civic Mk6, E30 320 Coupe, E36 318iS Coupe, E46 320ci, R53 Mini Cooper S, E46 M3 .. made decent money on all of them, especially the M3 (£13k profit from 2020 to 2023!). Bought an 2016 M135i for £18k this year which I expect to be the only car I'll lose a significant amount of money on.

Bought the 280z for £11k in 2022.. but by the time I've got it painted along with all the other parts I've bought, I'll easily have spent another £15k on it. Can't see it being worth £26k being a left hooker, but maybe it will in time and perhaps I could make my money back if sold in 10 years - but I will have likely spent another £15k on it by then So its very much a hobby that I like to spend my disposable income on, rather than an investment or anything.

Next time I buy a car, I'm asking you!! I'm pretty sure I've lost money on every car I've owned (but being a petrolhead, I accept that it comes with the territory) BTW I did have an E90 M3....best engine I've ever heard

I've got a T6 Transporter at the moment and that's 6 years old. I've decided to keep it forever, as it'll be cheaper to replace everything than buy a new one!

 

[Robotsan]

Next time I buy a car, I'm asking you!! I'm pretty sure I've lost money on every car I've owned (but being a petrolhead, I accept that it comes with the territory) BTW I did have an E90 M3....best engine I've ever heard

I've got a T6 Transporter at the moment and that's 6 years old. I've decided to keep it forever, as it'll be cheaper to replace everything than buy a new one!

I'm not including the money I spent on the cars btw I probably broke even on half of them, probably lost money on the rest!

Yeah I wouldn't sell that VW. Cars that modern have everything you need and are so quiet and comfortable, it's not like the 2030 one is going to be so much better its worth buying, so you may as well just keep it in good nic. I'd love one, but it's either a campervan or an extension now days, can't afford both!

 

[SeanDezart]

Whatever values we see in the Spring after all the Christmas jazz, prices will have risen (perhaps on the coat-tails of other, over-priced rust-buckets) and despite dropping - perhaps see that as a plateau before the next round of increases.

The point to note is that Zs, as any other classic car are finite products - they're not made anymore since over 50years and there is no lack of demand for them for buyers of all ages - not so for many classics today run by old fuddy-duddies without a generation or two behind to keep up the demand.

Z prices have risen amazingly but still not to what they're 'worth' - look at what it costs to restore one today.

Oh Rob...and perhaps other, please don't say "there speaks a Z-parts salesman eager to see high car prices"......I am and I am ; the higher the prices, the better people look after them - have you all forgotten the state of many Zs in the '80s with papier-mâché in the chassis rails to keep them solid-sounding for the MOT ?

 

[chrisvega]

You've hit the nail on the head there with restoration costs Sean.
It's not economically viable to restore a Z properly and make money, especially if your starting car has any rust to deal with unless you can do all the work yourself. Even using mates rates in Devon, the 260Z I have for sale at the moment cost more than the asking price to get to that standard on a rust free shell.

I know the guy who restored the blue 260Z that was sold at auction a couple of weeks ago for £51k. His customer paid over £80k to restore that car, granted it wasn't there to make him money though. He was very particular about the resto and had a big open cheque book to pay for it too but with labour rates in the South East at £80-100 hour plus VAT, not only are you not going to make money, you are going to lose a load on re-sale as that guy found out being on the wrong end of a £30k loss plus the value of the original car. So it has to be a decision made with the heart and not the head, a love for a particular car for whatever reason.

Choose the wrong car and you definitely can't get back what you put into a restoration.

 

[toopy]

I was at Fourways today sorting out a few things while my car is there, and James doesn’t think values will drop much if at all. There is plenty of demand and plenty of people seemingly prepared to pay for work to be done.
The cheaper end of the market maybe they will drop, but the higher end far less rusty examples, not so much.

 

[Farmer42]

I bought mine because I loved the shape & sound of the S30 and had done since I started driving. I wanted to be the custodian of something that had been cherished since it was new 40 odd years prior and due to various circumstances was now relatively rare. It's like buying and looking after a piece of art or a nice period piece of furniture. Value is not an issue for me. The experience of having something that many people would like is the main factor. That is why people pay the prices for these cars. If people didn't want them we would be back to the 90s when you couldnt give them away cos of the reputation of being Japanese rust buckets.

 

[AliK]

So here’s a parallel perspective - I thinks it’s all been said well about heart / head and supply v demand. But also consider this, in my line of business (Wealth / Asset Management), we see a flight from funds / alternative investments towards savings accounts, bond etc, when interest rates rise. In the last decade or so, we’ve had very low interest rates, so a lot of investors went for alternative investments, derivatives and guess what, physical assets; be they wines, art or classic cars.

Physical assets outperformed “the market” over the last 10 years for this and other reasons I won’t go into.

A LOT of investors, be they wealthy or powered by cheap finance, have piled into classic cars over the last decade or so - and especially so given the lack of capital gains / inheritance tax as already mentioned. In fact the latter is often used for “legacy planning” (read tax planning) to great effect by Private Bankers.

In my business we often say that a rising tide lifts all equally. So while people are buying e-types, Ferraris etc, they drive up the prices of more exotic cars out of the reach of the less wealthy, which then pushes up prices of lower value desirable classics like ours. And when those rise / become less available, 90s desirable cars get the focus of the buyers with more moderate budgets and so it goes on.

Given the double whammy of the rise in interest rates and inflation, combined with a couple of recent destabilising wars, the “average buyer” (if there is such a thing) with a moderate budget has to balance financial needs against job security, etc etc and will be less likely to be buying luxury items without a more considered approach.

How many Lambos / Ferraris / Porches etc dropped to a fraction of their de facto market values overnight in the 80s financial crash; with 17%+ interest / mortgage rates? Supply ramped up as people needed to free capital and demand fell off, not because red blooded males’ testosterone levels depleted overnight but because of their ability to finance frivolities and luxury items over and above other financial commitments / needs - and so the perceived value dropped. The values were pumped up not because of the sum of the parts but simply what people were able and willing to pay for them.

And then of course there is cult status etc which I won’t go into as it will take us away from the purpose of this post.

So in essence, it’s rarely one thing that drives values - but you can categorise them simply - I’m sure there are plenty others, but for brevity:

Supply / demand
Desirability / popularity
Cult status
Money markets / fiscal policy
Interest rates / inflation.

As for the Trader comment - this is the trouble with the internet and the written word, tonality and expression are completely lost. I certainly didn’t read it as an attack or intentional insult. Shame it can come across that way . - that’s why we have to use emojis

 

[SeanDezart]

I was at Fourways today sorting out a few things while my car is there, and James doesn’t think values will drop much if at all. There is plenty of demand and plenty of people seemingly prepared to pay for work to be done.
The cheaper end of the market maybe they will drop, but the higher end far less rusty examples, not so much.

They'll lose money on the blue/orange race-car they bought, now back up for sale.

It's a laught it's listed as an FIA race-car (is is NOT FIA-homologated) : https://www.carandclassic.com/l/C1657809

For everyone :

Is this worth this ? https://www.carandclassic.com/l/C1650955

And this ?https://www.carandclassic.com/car/C1617805

 

[SeanDezart]

So here’s a parallel perspective - I thinks it’s all been said well about heart / head and supply v demand. But also consider this, in my line of business (Wealth / Asset Management), we see a flight from funds / alternative investments towards savings accounts, bond etc, when interest rates rise. In the last decade or so, we’ve had very low interest rates, so a lot of investors went for alternative investments, derivatives and guess what, physical assets; be they wines, art or classic cars.

Physical assets outperformed “the market” over the last 10 years for this and other reasons I won’t go into.

A LOT of investors, be they wealthy or powered by cheap finance, have piled into classic cars over the last decade or so - and especially so given the lack of capital gains / inheritance tax as already mentioned. In fact the latter is often used for “legacy planning” (read tax planning) to great effect by Private Bankers.

In my business we often say that a rising tide lifts all equally. So while people are buying e-types, Ferraris etc, they drive up the prices of more exotic cars out of the reach of the less wealthy, which then pushes up prices of lower value desirable classics like ours. And when those rise / become less available, 90s desirable cars get the focus of the buyers with more moderate budgets and so it goes on.

Given the double whammy of the rise in interest rates and inflation, combined with a couple of recent destabilising wars, the “average buyer” (if there is such a thing) with a moderate budget has to balance financial needs against job security, etc etc and will be less likely to be buying luxury items without a more considered approach.

How many Lambos / Ferraris / Porches etc dropped to a fraction of their de facto market values overnight in the 80s financial crash; with 17%+ interest / mortgage rates? Supply ramped up as people needed to free capital and demand fell off, not because red blooded males’ testosterone levels depleted overnight but because of their ability to finance frivolities and luxury items over and above other financial commitments / needs - and so the perceived value dropped. The values were pumped up not because of the sum of the parts but simply what people were able and willing to pay for them.

And then of course there is cult status etc which I won’t go into as it will take us away from the purpose of this post.

So in essence, it’s rarely one thing that drives values - but you can categorise them simply - I’m sure there are plenty others, but for brevity:

Supply / demand
Desirability / popularity
Cult status
Money markets / fiscal policy
Interest rates / inflation.

As for the Trader comment - this is the trouble with the internet and the written word, tonality and expression are completely lost. I certainly didn’t read it as an attack or intentional insult. Shame it can come across that way . - that’s why we have to use emojis

Rising interest rates still won't compete for the money invested in physical assets - the proof is there and has been tasted albeit with judicious speculation and not just anything 'with a badge'.

Yes, a risding tide lifts everything but that does not explain the explosion in interest for S30s over the past 5-10 years !

There are much more specific reasons for the increased demand in this specific model type, more specifically two seaters and even more specifically (whether the extra cost is justified...to debate here) 240Zs.

 

[chrisvega]

As for the Trader comment - this is the trouble with the internet and the written word, tonality and expression are completely lost. I certainly didn’t read it as an attack or intentional insult. Shame it can come across that way . - that’s why we have to use emojis

Just for balance and to correct any misunderstanding the winking emoji was only added long afterwards (moderators can edit posts whenever unlike us poor mortals) but it wasn't there in the original post (see my re-post). Either way, higher prices are not something that a trader wishes for anyway, would only mean you could buy less stock from a given pot.

 

[Albrecht]

They'll lose money on the blue/orange race-car they bought, now back up for sale.

Unless you know exactly how much they paid for it, how would you be in any position to know whether they will "lose money" or not?

It's a laught it's listed as an FIA race-car (is is NOT FIA-homologated)

Two points:

Firstly, the H(L)S30 'Datsun 240Z' is FIA homologated (Fiche 3023). You are apparently confusing FIA homologation with FIA regulations compliance, which is a different can of worms.

Secondly, the car you are pointing at has been modified to IMSA GT2 class regulations and the advertisement listing makes this quite clear.
Car & Classic lump pretty much ALL race car listings into their 'FIA Race Cars' classification, hence you'll find all sorts of non-FIA regs compliant vehicles in that section.

 

[SeanDezart]

Unless you know exactly how much they paid for it, how would you be in any position to know whether they will "lose money" or not?



Two points:

Firstly, the H(L)S30 'Datsun 240Z' is FIA homologated (Fiche 3023). You are apparently confusing FIA homologation with FIA regulations compliance, which is a different can of worms.

Secondly, the car you are pointing at has been modified to IMSA GT2 class regulations and the advertisement listing makes this quite clear.
Car & Classic lump pretty much ALL race car listings into their 'FIA Race Cars' classification, hence you'll find all sorts of non-FIA regs compliant vehicles in that section.

Have you been sitting there all this time waiting to pounce ?

Yes, my bad - FIA compliant is isn't and since you'r 'in on the inside', please tell us why they're selling after less than a year owning it - rash purchase with no homework ?

Of course I know exactly how much they paid for it - how otherwise would I know whether they'll lose money on it !

 

[toopy]

Fourways are currently doing some minor work on a car i saw today, its a genuine UK RHD one owner from new, low miles, 260z 2+2 in silver, no modifications other than 280zx wheels (i think) and, for some reason a black engine bay! still has flat top carbs, interior looks unused, especially the rear seats, just needs some light recommissioning after being unused for about 15 years.

Value?